In the next nine months we will witness a fascinating tension within the McCain campaign as he tries to solidify his base while not alienating independents and moderate Democrats. A couple of things could make that easier, in addition to his efforts at outreach.

Time will help, since it will sink in that a number of Supreme Court appointments, a de facto defeat in Iraq (cf. the latest Pelosi assessments), multifaceted tax increases, and enlargement in entitlements more than outweigh worries about campaign-finance reform, questions about Guantanamo, and past heresies on immigration. McCain’s constant lectures about deficit spending can only help.

Second, the media will soon turn on McCain with a vengeance — and base conservatives will have to sort out their complaints that he is too liberal in the context of their strident opponents in the media damning McCain for transforming into a right-wing nut.

Third, it will sink in soon that conservatives are in this dilemma for reasons that have nothing to do with McCain — the embarrassing scandals of 2006-7, the huge increase in federal spending and entitlements between 2001-5, the failure to use sufficient force in Iraq in the early days of the insurgency, all eroded support for a Republican agenda. The Abramoff, Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Duke Cunningham, etc. scandals had nothing to do with McCain, but turned off independents, since social conservatives suffer the additional wage of hypocrisy with their party was hit with all that.

Fourth, we haven’t really heard the alternative agenda. If the opponent is Obama, and his advisers and past speeches are any guide, then the contrast with McCain will be fundamental. The media has focused on Bill’s disturbing outbursts, but if one were to collate carefully what the smart, well-educated, but sorely inexperienced Michelle Obama has said thus far, it would be equally interesting — and only will amplify in the general election the stark choice between an Obama and McCain.

For McCain to win in this current anti-incumbent, anti-Republican climate of war and economic uncertainty, everything will have to break right — the base will have to make a choice for the better, not the best, alternative and soon cool the rhetoric; the VP choice will have to be inspired; independents and moderates will have to be convinced that McCain’s unique life-story and national security fides trump all else; and he will have to wage an effective campaign, hope his opponents don’t, and trust that Iraq will continue to improve while the economy is stabilized.

A lot of ifs-but again he is the only candidate that gives Republicans a shot. All the other candidates, in this year, in this climate, and given the campaigns they waged, equate to 1964 all over again.