Confident that former senator George Allen (R., Va.) will reclaim his seat in 2012, Gov. Bob McDonnell (R., Va.), in an interview with National Review Online, observes that Allen’s probable opponent, former governor Tim Kaine (D., Va.), “is a lot like Barack Obama.”

McDonnell lists the similarities between Kaine’s résumé and Obama’s: They both graduated from Harvard Law School. They both worked as civil-rights attorneys. They both promoted community organizing (Obama on the streets of Chicago, Kaine in the mayor’s office of Richmond). Compared to Virginia’s other Democratic senator, Mark Warner, Kaine is “more philosophically Left,” McDonnell assesses. As governor, Kaine proposed a $2 billion income-tax hike, the largest such increase in state history. Despite these weaknesses, McDonnell concedes that Kaine, like Warner, is “good at retail politics.”

He also wonders why Kaine is running. “I think in his heart he didn’t want to do it,” he says. Kaine enjoyed his gig as chairman of the Democratic National Committee but felt pressure to run because the Old Dominion’s blue bench is “much smaller now” that the GOP has resurfaced. The governor warns that “Virginia clearly will be a swing state” in 2012.

But Allen better watch his right flank. Tea partier Jamie Radtke is challenging him for the Republican nomination, and McDonnell thinks “she’s not to be underestimated.” Last fall, Richmond hosted the largest Tea Party convention in the country: Over 3,000 people attended.

Speaking of national politics, McDonnell voices support for Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.)’s plan to convert Medicaid into block grants for states. “It’s a very good idea. . . . Medicaid is a budget buster for every state,” he says — and every governor knows it. Although McDonnell cautions that he hasn’t “looked at [Ryan’s budget] in detail,” he thinks it’s a “step in the right direction.” Yet he admits, “We’re not getting there fast enough in terms of deficit reduction.”

Luckily, he also believes “there’s [not] a better time to be honest with people” about our fiscal crisis. When he advised the newly elected Republican governors, he told them “You’ve got political capital. Spend it.” Yes, “there is clearly some short-term pain” to cutting spending. When he filled two budget gaps of $1.8 billion and $4.2 billion without raising taxes, he confesses, “We got plenty of negative fan mail.” But once economic growth resumes apace, the people will understand why those cuts were necessary.

With a 66 percent approval rating, McDonnell understands the dynamic well. The answer — policy-wise and politics-wise — is “Do the right thing.”