One of the most important questions for Iraq’s political future is whether it will end up as two countries or three (contrary to the impression you might be getting from the news, this has not yet been settled). I’m still doubtful that a viable Iraqi Arab identity can grow out of the mayhem of the past six years, but if it is possible (i.e., the two-country outcome), the Kurds are key. The latest: “Iraqi Arabs protest US plan for Kurdish patrols” — the way to build trans-confessional soldarity among Iraq’s Shia and Sunni Arabs is to have a long, drawn-out, messy conflict with the Kurds. Now that they’ve had de facto independence for going on 20 years, they’re never going to peacefully submit to Arab rule and the Iraqis can’t make them. But there will be a fight over Kirkuk and however it turns out, it will have the salutary effect of binding the Iraqi Arabs together to some degree. A two-country outcome for Iraq is clearly preference for us, since a single Arab state in Mesopotamia would be better able to stand up to Iran, but for that to happen, we need to abandon the fantasy of a one-country outcome including the Kurds.