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In-reply-to:

Er, sorry, got the 8 and 9 switched round in that last post.

No scary math here, it’s just compound interest, & the numbers are all on the Web.

The assumption of linearity is, of course, absurd; but Jonah already said that. Even just leaving aside considerations of political upset, resource crunch, etc., as China becomes a mature economy her growth rates will presumably fall to what mature economies manage — 3 or 4 percent in normal times.