Cleveland – A top Republican strategist offered this cautionary reminder ahead of tonight’s debate: A win tonight, which will likely go to the candidate who produces the buzziest soundbite, offers a campaign short-term gain; a big mistake threatens to do serious long-term damage. That means all of the candidates have more to lose on the stage tonight than to gain, and that many may play it safe.

Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain came through with solid debate performances in 2012, and their campaigns went on to live another day. Rick Perry blundered and essentially sunk his campaign. Al Gore had a similar moment when he hovered awkwardly over George W. Bush’s shoulder in the final debate of the 2000 election.

Taking the long view, a candidate may be able to notch a win tonight merely by emerging unscathed.