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Hi Rich-
A few thoughts to add to your New York Post piece:
1) If it gets down to (effectively) McCain vs. Romney, it will be an interesting test of “Who is the true GOP Establishment?” Talk radio and conservative publications will be strongly for Romney. On the other hand, if and when Fred, Rudy, and Huck drop out, they’ll all probably endorse McCain. Under that reasonably likely scenario, it looks like the establishment bona fides are a wash.
2) If McCain takes the sensible advice to give conservatives the “I’m one of you” speech, it will still be inadequate. McCain has a negative emotional bond with much of the GOP base, and emotional bonds (good and bad) are generally not reasoned away. Case in point: McCain’s top economic guy is Phil Gramm, which is the conservative equivalent of making Ponnuru his SCOTUS advisor. Yet McCain gets grief for being a heretic on economics. You (sensibly) give McCain kudos for his Iraq leadership, and anti McCain people say “no…it was Bush and Petraus.” I’m not sure if there’s precedent for a candidate undoing negative emotional bonds. But if it’s going to happen, I don’t think a speech does the job.
3) The VP might be McCain’s magic bullet. “VP to a 71 year old” is a pretty coveted political position, and in the short term it insulates McCain from attacks from Huck and Fred. In the long term, McCain’s choice might be the only way to (partially) undo the negative emotional bonds with the right. I nominate Christopher Cox. McCain has said he wants someone strong on econ., and few match an S.E.C. Chairman and Harvard Business grad. He’s a telegenic social-con who is fluent in Russian and has foreign policy experience from his China hearings. As a native Minnesotan, he’d be golden on the platform at the Minneapolis convention. Just as choosing Cheney was interpreted (at the time) as a signal of seriousness, choosing Cox would be a signal of where McCain envisions the party going. And conservatives would like that direction.
4) The candidate who would be the least likely to angle for a VP slot (Romney) is the one for whom the vice presidency is the likeliest route to the presidency. If Romney were an Episcopalian, he’d probably be the runaway nominee. I think the electorate, including the evangelical right, would “get over” the Mormon issue if they got used to Mitt as a conservative VP for four years. Still, Cox is sort of a Catholic version of Mitt (albeit not a governor), and he has none of Mitt’s authenticity baggage.

UPDATE

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McCain’s VP (and I am NOT a McCain supporter) will be Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota…. telegenic, young, acceptable to all factions of the party, favorite son at the Convention, and puts the upper Midwest (MN, IA, WI) in play…