There’s more to the Gallup poll than Bush’s 44 percent rating. In response to the question “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” the results among likely voters are tied at 48 percent Democratic and 48 percent Republican. Among registered voters, Democrats still lead, 51-42.

The explanation for the GOP’s apparently improving fortunes is a greater concern about terrorism. Likely voters listed it as their second-most important concern (after Iraq). And when Gallup asked, “Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports President Bush on terrorism, more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Bush on terrorism, or would that not make much difference to your vote?” 45 percent of likely voters said they would vote for a candidate who supports Bush, while 28 percent said they would vote for a candidate who opposes Bush, and 26 percent said it didn’t make a difference.

Gallup also asked, “What impact do you think this fall’s elections will have on terrorism in the U.S.? Do you think the country will be safer from terrorism if the Republicans keep control of Congress, would be safer from terrorism if the Democrats gain control of Congress, or would it not make a difference either way?” (Gallup always rotates mentioning the Republicans or Democrats first.) Forty-four percent said it would make no difference. Thirty-one percent said the country would be safer if Republicans keep control, and 21 percent said it would be safer if Democrats gain control.

On one specific anti-terrorist program, the warrantless wiretapping effort, the new poll shows that public opinion, months after the storm over the issue, is coming around to Bush. Gallup asked, “As you may know, the Bush administration has been wiretapping telephone conversations between U.S. citizens living in the United States and suspected terrorists living in other countries without getting a court order allowing it to do so. Do you think the Bush administration was right or wrong in wiretapping these conversations without obtaining a court order?” Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said Bush was right, while 42 percent said he was wrong. Here are the results of the last three Gallup polls on that same question:

Right Wrong No opinion
Sept. 15-17 2006 55 42 3
Feb. 9-12 2006 47 50 3
January 20-22 46 51 3

Finally, the new poll asked this question: “When interrogating prisoners, members of the U.S. military are required to abide by the Geneva Convention standards which prohibit the humiliating and degrading treatment of prisoners. When the CIA questions suspects whom they believe to have information about possible terror plots against the United States, do you think they should have to abide by the same Geneva Convention standards that apply to the U.S. military or they should be able to use more forceful interrogation techniques than the Geneva Convention standards that apply to the U.S. military?” Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed said the CIA should abide by Geneva Convention standards, while 37 percent say the CIA should be able to use more forceful techniques. Now, there are a lot of details that are necessarily left out of poll questions, and it is not clear where public opinion would come down on the question of what constitutes humiliating and degrading treatment of prisoners. But for now, at least, the public generally supports the idea of applying Geneva Convention standards. On the other hand, as the warrantless surveillance numbers show, public opinion can change, once the rush of controversy is over and people have a chance to reconsider the question free of all the shouting.