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Rich,Yes, Howard Dean, Lieberman, Senator Monkey Business all lost big leads in the national polls. They, of course, are all Democrats. I can’t cite one Republican who had the early lead in the national polls that did not go on to win the nomination in my lifetime. (Born 1963).

ME: That’s an excellent point. A friend was saying the same thing to me the other day–that in Republican races traditionally there’s a frontrunner, and at the end of the day it doesn’t matter if he loses a couple of places early on, he wins anyway. Two questions, though: 1) Is Rudy that kind of frontrunner? He’s led pretty much all the way in the national polls, but I don’t think he’s a traditional frontrunner with all the overwhelming advantages that implies; 2) Has a frontrunner ever lost 4 or 5 contests at the beginning of the race and gone on to win? Dropping one or two is one thing, but that’s a long string of losses.

So I come back to what I was saying yesterday–there’s no reason that Rudy, if he does the spadework, can’t finish strong in Iowa and win New Hampshire. For me, it’s almost a tautology: If Rudy is as strong nationally as his supporters believe, he’ll win some of these early states. If not, well then, he won’t, and it’s hard to see Feb. 5 saving him.