A friend throws a little cold water: Let’s say he gets in and gets some traction. That means he’ll probably be in the third place. So the old conservative in third place (Romney, or sometimes the non-candidate Gingrich) is replaced by the new conservative in third place (Thompson). The new conservative won’t have the flip-flopping problem of Romney, but he also won’t have the same ability to fundraise or organize–at least he’ll be badly trailing in all those areas. And what the race definitely does not lack is conservatives who don’t have the money, organization, or name ID (although Thompson is stronger in this area) to be competitive with the big boys: Huckabee, Hunter, Brownback, and Gilmore all fit this bill. The way these multi-candidate races typically work is that the more conservatives get in, the harder it is for other conservatives to get traction. By this logic, McCain and Giuliani have to be rooting for both Thompson and Gingrich to get in, because then the race would positively be overwhelmed with under-financed, under-organized conservatives. Again, by this logic, conservatives should be hoping that a viable pro-choicer gets in the race to eat away at some of Giuliani’s vote, not that another conservative gets in the race. All of this analysis would be off, however, if Romney is simply collapsing, but it doesn’t seem that way, even if he’s had a tough few months. For what it’s worth…