Yesterday, Senator Dick Lugar’s campaign sent an email announcing its lead in early voting. In response, Chris Conner, spokesman for Richard Mourdock, emails NRO:

To have 49% refusing to say they are voting for the incumbent is a disaster for any incumbent. Most are being polite and probably voting for Richard Mourdock. Our poll showed Mourdock winning those who were going to vote early 51%-36%. Election day voters preferred Lugar 42%-40%. 18% of all voters say that they will vote early.