It’s almost impossible to figure out others’ intentions, since they are often irrational, more frequently confused, and almost always different from the way we would reach a decision. I think the best a serious analyst can do is to try to understand the parameters within which others operate, and try to evaluate their real options. The mullahs are all of the above, plus some of them are actively working to bring about the end of the world so that their messiah can return. Plus they are insecure in their domain, and might think/hope that open warfare would rally the people round them.

They have a lot to worry about. The Supreme Leader is mortally ill, and the regime is in the throes of a major succession struggle. To make things worse, a surprising number of their top intel and military people–some of whom have been directing the terror war against us in the region–have gone missing recently. Rich Miniter says that we’ve got three hundred of them right now in Iraq, and I don’t know what happened to General Asgari, who may be telling us, or a friend of ours, some really important things, which may account for some or most of the hundreds of Iranian prisoners and their agents.

So the mullahs may judge that time is suddenly against them (especially if they think that our surge is going well), and it’s best to provoke a shooting war with the West. (They have been waging a terror war against us for 28 years).

Or not. Hostage-taking is not new for them, is it? Ask Jimmy Carter or anyone who worked for Ronald Reagan.

They’re crazy but not stupid. Policy makers should of course assume that the mullahs DO want a shooting war.