In fact, winters are coming.
It’s become something of a cliché to top stories about the coming energy crunch in Europe with the headline “Winter Is Coming” (in my defense, I rolled out the cliché earlier than some), but it does seem particularly appropriate in this case.
Europe could suffer a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European weather forecasting agency, adding to the challenges for governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.
Florence Rabier, director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said early indications for November and December were for a period of high pressure over western Europe, which was likely to bring with it colder spells and less wind and rainfall, reducing the generation of renewable power. . . .
“If we have this pattern then for the energy it is quite demanding because not only is it a bit colder but also you have less wind for wind power and less precipitation for hydro power,” she told the Financial Times.
Once again, we are reminded about the inherent unreliability of renewables. And, yes, just to add to the problem, the output from solar energy in northern Europe typically falls in the winter months. Cold and dark and all that.
One of the great advances made by humanity has been our increasing ability to ignore, at least under relatively normal conditions, the weather. Increasing reliance on renewables appears to be reversing that trend. None of this is to say that renewables cannot play a part in a properly diversified energy-supply network. Obviously they can. But they cannot do all the work by themselves. The sun does not always shine, and the wind does not always blow. Until we have dependable and scalable storage capacity, there will be no getting around that problem, and reliable backup will be required. Nuclear power can go a long way to providing that backup, but we will not be able to build it out at the speed that is required.
To return to the point I made in my previous post, the answer lies with developing new fossil-fuel projects, preferably natural gas (something the EU, incidentally, has recognized as a “transitional” fuel for climate purposes). But that will require sufficiently reassuring the fossil-fuel companies concerned that they are not going to be asked to invest large sums to fund new projects only to find that those new investments are being held against them by legislators, regulators, litigation lawyers, and the ESG squad. In today’s climate, they’re going to need quite a bit of reassurance.
If there is a cold winter, that may mean difficulties. I wrote about this in the course of a recent article for National Review:
Price-driven demand destruction for gas (not an encouraging economic indicator), complemented by voluntary (for now) efforts within the EU to reduce consumption by 15 percent and some success in finding other sources of supply (or replacing gas with substitutes such as, cough, cough, coal), has, along with buying programs, some of which are now mandatory up to a certain level under EU law, led to storage facilities that are over 85 percent full, above average for this time of year. This offers some hope that the worst result — rationing — can be avoided this winter, although without the prospect of much in the way of top-ups, “above average” may well not be sufficient, especially if it’s colder than usual.
That number has now reached roughly 90 percent.
But (the Daily Telegraph reports):
The IEA, whose members include the UK and the US, warned that running [reserves] down too quickly would leave countries vulnerable to cold snaps in March. A complete halt to Russian supplies “cannot be ruled out”, it said, as Russia weaponises gas supplies as its war on Ukraine intensifies. Meanwhile, competition for shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) from around the world is likely to be fierce.
[The IEA] argues that EU storage levels need to be kept at at least 33pc of capacity until the weather warms up, for “a safe and secure winter”. Depending on the level of LNG imports that are available, that could require demand cuts of up to 13pc. Much of this will come from cutting gas use in commercial buildings and power stations.
However, the IEA also warns: “A 13pc demand reduction would also necessitate gas savings from households and require responsible electricity and gas consumption behaviour.
“Our analysis indicates that behaviour change could reduce gas demand by 15 billion cubic metres during the 2022/23 heating season, equating to over 40pc of the 13pc demand reduction.”
And then, of course, there is the winter of 2023–24 to think about. The chances of there being any Russian gas to refill Europe’s storage facilities next summer are . . . low.
Winters are coming.