Rich, I don’t think Newt will benefit particularly from going around saying there’s going to be a political earthquake in November should there be a political earthquake in November. In the first place, he’s just speaking conventional Washington wisdom. The conventional wisdom may be right, but it doesn’t mean much when you’re saying things everybody you know is saying. In the second, should the earthquake occur, he will not be able to avoid walking around saying “I told you so,” which will just remind people of the know-it-all qualities that made it impossible for Republicans to love him after a while. And finally, nobody in American politics ever scored big with the “if only they’d listened to me” argument — you know, if only they’d listened to me, Bremer wouldn’t have acted like a regent in Iraq blah blah blah. Churchill may have gotten the prime ministership in Great Britain because everybody realized he was right, but Churchill is the great exception, not the rule.

A disaster in November strengthens the non-Washington candidates, whoever they may be. Newt, even though he’s not in office right now, is still a Washington candidate.