What about Tuesday’s caucus in Louisiana, to which no one has paid much attention? I’m told that Thompson is the only one who has been playing the caucus seriously, but that there is also a movement by conservatives there to send uncommitted delegates to the state convention who can have an effect in shaping the state party platform. Either way, with only eleven caucus sites throughout the state, no one is going to take that contest as seriously as the others.

If McCain pulls it out today in South Carolina — I’m told this hour by another campaign that this appears likely — then Florida becomes the last stand for “Everyone vs. McCain.” (I’m also told that the weather is not as bad in South Carolina as some had feared, but I am not there myself so I can hardly say.)

No one has managed to win two major primaries in a row, and if McCain becomes the first to do so on Jan. 29, then the move toward him in the national polls could be all he needs for a strong Super Tuesday. Otherwise, it becomes a bloody delegate-hunt that could be good and bad for the GOP in different ways.