Nikki Haley’s Path to Beating Trump in 2024

What you’re about to read is not a likely scenario — not at this juncture. It is, however, a possible scenario. That plain distinction needs to be explicated for the benefit of those who are so addicted to a self-reinforcing fatalism that even the consideration of alternative outcomes is regarded as a contemptible delusion.

And yet, that outlook risks discounting the evidence that the 2024 Republican presidential primary could become a contest after all. On that, the latest CBS News/YouGov surveys of GOP primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are instructive.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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What you’re about to read is not a likely scenario — not at this juncture. It is, however, a possible scenario. That plain distinction needs to be explicated for the benefit of those who are so addicted to a self-reinforcing fatalism that even the consideration of alternative outcomes is regarded as a contemptible delusion.

And yet, that outlook risks discounting the evidence that the 2024 Republican presidential primary could become a contest after all. On that, the latest CBS News/YouGov surveys of GOP primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are instructive.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.