In June 2006, President Obama spoke on the Senate floor about how irresponsible it would be to withdraw quickly from Iraq. That November, as soon as the 2006 election cycle was over and he found himself facing Hillary Clinton in the presidential primaries, he announced the need for an immediate withdrawal. Three months before the Iowa caucuses, in September 2007, he declared that he would “have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months” of his inauguration, and that “we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq.”

To this point, Obama’s shifting positions on what to do in Iraq have been based on political considerations and not necessarily the reality of the situation there. So it is anyone’s guess what has pushed him toward the new position announced today: He plans to stay in Iraq until at least the beginning of 2012 with 50,000 troops. For those paying attention, that is exactly how long President Bush planned on staying in Iraq.

That business about withdrawal? About change? Just an election gimmick, sorry. The Obama administration does still insist that there will be no permanent military presence in Iraq after our withdrawal. But that can always . . . change.