In a report made all the more damning by the news last night from Moscow, the European Leadership Network has taken a look at the progress made by NATO’s European allies towards taking their defense spending to the minimum NATO target of 2 percent of GDP, a commitment reiterated and expanded upon at a NATO summit in September: those at the 2 percent level agreed they would at least maintain it. Those below the target agreed to halt any decline in defense expenditure and then increase it in real terms as GDP grows. Their longer term intention would be to move towards the 2% guideline within a decade.

Given the dilapidated state of Europe’s security architecture, these were not the most demanding of objectives, and yet:

Preliminary reports from fourteen [European] countries examined for fiscal year 2015 suggest that only one (Estonia) will spend 2% of GDP on defence. Six out of the fourteen states examined, namely Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, the Netherlands and Romania will increase their military expenditure this year but not meet the 2% target. In Poland’s case, a further commitment has been made to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP in 2016 from a figure just below that in 2015. Six countries will cut defence expenditure in 2015. These include the UK, Germany, Canada, Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria. France is on course for a flat defence budget in 2015 compared to 2014.

It’s good to see that some, at least, are increasing spending, but, as for those that are cutting it (including, regrettably, the UK, down to ~ 1.9% from a relatively high 2.01%) pay particular attention to Germany, land of the ‘tough-talking’ Angela Merkel, home of the broomstick army, and seemingly cutting spending further.

So, of the countries surveyed, only Estonia hits the target. History and geography go a long way to explain why. But if other European nations would pay attention, their history and geography could tell them a thing or two too. But too many are not paying attention. It’s worth noting that the two other European countries that do hit the target, primarily for local reasons, are Greece, a nation now seemingly headed into the pro-Putin camp, and Turkey, a country with, shall we say, a very complicated agenda.

Estonia celebrated its independence day on February 24. Among the highlights was a military parade, including armor from the US, in Narva, the country’s third largest city, just across the river from Russia.

There was also a fine speech from the country’s savvy Stockholm-born, raised in New Jersey president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves.

This passage, in particular, caught my eye:

A war is underway in Ukraine. People are being killed there every day. Even now. This is a new type of war, in which one clearly proven combatant is openly using the newest weapons while denying everything.
One the main characters in this war is Untruth. For almost an entire year, Europe also kept saying that, despite all the proof, “separatists” were involved. In other words, recalling George Orwell’s timeless perception, peace is again war and a ceasefire actually murderous artillery fire.