My initial impressions in Iowa.

Iowans are less enthusiastic about their enormous power than I expected — most of the people I met and spoke to at rallies yesterday were from out-of-state. In fact, it was hard to find even a handful of Iowans after Romney’s and Obama’s rallies. And in random locations, like the coffee shop I’m working from now, some Iowans say they will not be caucusing. I suppose that’s only natural — as few as 250,000 may turn out tonight, if history is any guide. A Romney win still appears likely, but Huckabee might just do it. The recent polling gives him an edge.

Hillary, meanwhile, appears more and more fragile. Local reporters from the Council Bluffs Daily Nonpareil agree with my take (which matches Novak and Carney’s prediction of yesterday) that a third-place finish for her is a real possibility, because she is no one’s second choice.