One of my more enduring lefty email critics, but an altogether decent guy, writes me to say that NRO is “taking the bait.” And that in reality Osama is taunting the American people because he knows that will get a rise out of us and, thus, Osama really wants Bush to win (as John Hillen mentions below).

I think this is an interesting interpretation and since this guy is something of a canary in the coalmine for lefty arguments, it’s worth considering or at least anticipating.

First, I don’t buy it. The one thing we’ve known about Osama for a very long time is that he doesn’t understand American politics. He honestly thought — as far as we can tell — that America would fold from the 9/11 attacks. He constantly talked about our glass chin and how we were the weaker superpower viz a viz the Soviet Union. The constant refusal of American to treat terrorism as anything other than the “nuisance” John Kerry preferred is what emboldened those guys further (that, alas, includes Reagan’s decision to bug out of Beirut).

The tragically regular successes terrorists have enjoyed in recent years when it comes to changing Western policy are probably what he has in mind. The tragic decision of Spain to elect an antiwar party and withdraw from Iraq being the biggest and best example. But the kidnappings which chased the Phillipines out of the coalition, the bribes paid by countless coalition partners, etc all have probably reinforced Osama’s views. I find it hard to believe that Osama’s goal here is throw the election to the guy he considers a deranged Christian crusader. What Osama needs now is not a reinvigorated, ratified war on terror from Bush and Cheney, what he needs is a time out to reinforce, regroup etc. It might be unfair to Kerry (though I doubt it), but he almost surely thinks he gets a time out from Kerry not from Bush.

Moreover, if what we hear is true, Osama’s been in a cave somewhere which would incline him toward, literally, a bunker mentality.