If Iranian elite military units really are freelancing doesn’t that make the prospect of a nuclear Iran even scarier? A reader writes:
If Iran doesn’t have unified control of its military resources, what does that imply for its control and use of nuclear weapons, and the particular goals and problems of whomever it is that actually controls the launch / don’t launch decision?
There are arguments that the Iranians aren’t nuts and so can be deterred. Those are based on the moderate political trend in the country, which does seem strong. But if their government really is fragmented, don’t we have to start thinking about who actually controls the bombs, and what their particular decisionmaking might look like? And worrying that the certified lunatics, even if they’re a minority, will be in charge of the bomb?
I bet there is some basis for the idea that there are rival Iranian institutions conducting their own foreign and military policy, up to and including actual operations. But if so, that matters not just for Iraq policy but for proliferation policy.






Comments