If youโve followed the recent quarter-by-quarter performance of the American economy, the adjective that comes to mind is โerratic.โ Good quarter, weak quarter, very good quarter, crap quarter, etc. Today, we learned that growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 was nearly halved from the third-quarter growth rate, down to 2.6 percent.
Reuters, rooting around for some good news, writes: โEven with the moderation in the fourth quarter, growth remained above the 2.5 percent pace, which is considered to be the economyโs potential.โ If you are wondering what in hell โ2.5 percent growth is considered to be the economyโs potentialโ means, you are not alone. The Reuters piece also reports that consumer spending remains robust and repeats the myth that consumer spending represents โmore than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.โ It does not. Or rather, it does if you count as โconsumer spendingโ a lot of things that are not consumer spending, e.g. Medicaid, Medicare, nonprofit enterprises, etc. Wishing that the news were good does not make it good.
It isnโt good. It isnโt terrible. Itโs erratic. And erratic . . . isnโt good.






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