Well, well.
The US has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to officials familiar with American diplomatic cables on the exchange.
The cables, which were sent by the US state department to allies in Europe and Asia, were not specific about the level or the timing of any assistance that may be provided.
The Financial Times reported on Sunday that Russia had made the request for assistance at some point after the start of the now three-week conflict.
The Russian request and Chinese response have sounded alarm bells in the White House. US officials believe China is trying to help Russia while its top officials publicly call for a diplomatic solution to the war.
The Chinese embassy in the US on Sunday said it had no knowledge of any Russian request or positive Chinese response to Moscow. Russia on Monday also denied making any request to China…
A somewhat vague report (inevitably so, probably), but I’d be surprised if China were not prepared to offer Putin a helping hand. Beijing now has Russia where it wants it, placed in a firmly subordinate role in the two countries’ partnership, thanks to the isolated position in which Moscow now finds itself. Any risk of regime change (however remote) in Russia would thus not be helpful, but I would expect that (this, needless to say, is guesswork) any support would be limited. Beijing wouldn’t want to see Russia do too well, something that might give Putin ideas above his new station.
As to the argument that a prolonged conflict in Ukraine (and the sanctions that come with it) are damaging the Chinese economy, it’s important to remember that for a fascist regime such (more or less) as China’s, the economic is secondary to the political. Beijing may also be calculating that if the conflict in Ukraine moves from being a headline-grabbing war to a long, drawn-out insurgency, the Western appetite for sustained sanctions, at least at current levels, will fade.
Meanwhile, our cooperation with China over climate change (a relationship so vital that John Kerry wouldn’t want it to be disrupted by small matters such as genocide) seems to be going swimmingly.
China plans a massive increase in coal mining, a move that will dramatically reduce its reliance on imports and deal a blow to its near-term climate actions.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation’s top economic planner, told officials from major mining regions at a meeting late last week that it wants to boost domestic production capacity by about 300 million tons, according to people familiar with the matter. It also plans to build a 620 million-ton stockpile of the fuel split between government, miners and users.
Such an increase in output would cut the country’s already scant dependence on foreign imports after global prices hit record levels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The measures also highlight concerns that China’s reliance on fossil fuels remains as entrenched as ever, as it seeks to enhance energy security to limit disruptions to economic growth, regardless of the impact on its climate goals…
And there we have it.