The decision by George Pataki not to seek a fourth term as governor of New York state is merely a reflection of reality. Unless certain Democratic nominee Eliot Spitzer hauled off and arrested himself, there would have been no way for Pataki to win. Nor will he make a serious play for the presidency, because Pataki is many things, but he is not a fool.

The White House might try a Hail Mary play for the seat and give Pataki an ambassadorship or a Cabinet post very soon and see whether the totally unknown Lt. Governor Mary Donohue might prove unexpectedly talented at the top job (as is the case with Jodi Rell, who got the job in Connecticut when John Rowland went off to the pokey and has become a star). Otherwise, the bench is unbelievably weak. Some nice and good guys in the Congress — Pete King, John Sweeney — can and may and will run, but Spitzer will mow them down.

You’re going to hear a lot of Rudy Giuliani talk in the next few days — Rudy for Governor, blah blah blah. I don’t think he’ll go for it. In the first place, the position of the GOP in New York state is so parlous that even the hero of 9/11 would begin with a disadvantange.

More important, the sorts of liberal-Republican things Rudy would have to say and do — on abortion and stem cells and guns and the like — to secure the governorship would make him permanently unelectable as president. His hero’s welcome in the Red States indicates Rudy has some freedom right now to “grow” in a conservative sense — to offer a new perspective on these matters that might make him amenable to the party’s presidential nominating base. And what he wants, what he really wants, is the presidency. It would help him, doubtless, to make a run from a governor’s mansion — but not that governor’s mansion.

So where does that leave New York Republicans? It’s a time for rebuilding. Like a decade of rebuilding. Like a century of rebuilding.