Unless unexpected news emerges in the next three weeks, there’s absolutely no reason to think that Harriet Miers will withdraw her own name or that President Bush will withdraw it.

If my dear friend David Frum’s petition ends up with 50,000 names on it, that won’t change things a whit. So what’s needed to be said about her nomination has been said, and now we will all have to wait to listen to Miers herself.

It’s possible that the controversy over her selection means the bar has been set very low for her — should she display some smarts, a tiny bit of wit and minimal competency answering (or pointedly not answering) the questions posed to her, she may sail through.

However, it’s also possible that the opposite is true. It’s possible that unless she is absolutely brilliant and blows everybody away, she could be in huge trouble. Democrats, who have been wisely keeping quiet while conservatives attack, haven’t yet tipped their hand in relation to Miers.

Thus, the bar may be set astoundingly high for her. If she merely fumbles one or two or three questions over the course of four days — remember, these are tough and grueling hearings — Democrats on the Judiciary Committee could take up the mantra that she is not qualified for the Court. Moreover, they could do so in a completely anti-ideological way, thus reinforcing their newly effective political attack on the adminstration’s competence.

At which point a few Republicans, for whatever reasons they might have, may fall away from her as well. And so her nomination would be reported out of committee unfavorably.

If that should happen, I think there’s no question she is not confirmed.

In the end, then, it will be up to Harriet Miers whether she makes it through. If she appears intellectually formidable and performs flawlessly, she’ll be fine. If she seems nice and inoffensive, she will be back at her White House desk by December.

From here on in, it’s her ball game. Her friend and mentor, the president, can’t help her now.

All the petitions and columns and blog entries aren’t going to make a difference. Hugh Hewitt is right. Some conservatives and evangelicals are supporting her and are angry at folks like us on the Right who’ve expressed our disappointment with the nomination. And we’re right. Some conservatives and evangelicals are as angry as we are. So as far as that goes, it’s a wash.

But one thing is for certain: The criticism of the Miers nomination has damaged the White House’s ability to strong-arm Republicans into voting en masse for her. The division in the party’s base about the fitness of the nomination gives every Republican senator a free pass on this one.

So good luck, Miss Miers. Honestly. This is the hardest thing you’ll ever do, and if you do it well and make it through this political maze, you will have demonstrated resilience, courage and street smarts. That doesn’t mean you’ll be a good Justice. But it means you will be a Justice.