t will be fascinating to see how much of a factor this is in the coming

campaigns. There is no doubt that Bush has switched off a lot of

conservative voters with this amnesty deal. Far as I know, nobody but

conservatives reads National Review Online, and my inbox is full of rage.

Presumably, as the NY Times has said, the administration calculates that

Bush can bear these losses in November, having compensated for them by

picking up some much larger number of “Niceness” and Hispanic votes. I

wonder if they are right. And a so-far-undiscussed factor is how this will

play with black voters, who — though you would never know it from listening

to their self-appointed “community leaders” — have good reasons to dislike

illegal immigration.

To the people who keep asking me if I’ll vote for Bush anyway: you bet.

The alternative doesn’t bear thinking about. Though if, against what look

to me like very long odds, the alternative is Joe Lieberman, I might

hesitate for a minute or two.