In addition to the three reasons for Democrats’ nervousness mentioned earlier (intervening variables, Obama’s overperformance among certain groups in swing state polls and his lagging behind the generic Democrat) the following would concern me if I were a Democrat: 1. It’s not uncommon for the Democratic candidate to hold a sizeable lead in July and August polls only to lose in November. Carter, Dukakis and Gore each saw summertime leads of 12 points or more vanish by November. Obama’s present lead of 1–2 points (even assuming he’s no longer overperforming in the polls) provides an insufficient cushion to withstand the usual Democratic erosion during the fall. 2. The Democratic candidate has gotten more than 50.1% of the popular vote only once in the last 34 years. 3. Obama’s Born-Alive vote puts him in uncharted territory for a presidential candidate. His supporters undoubtedly hope that the public remains unaware of Obama’s position. If he’s asked to explain his vote (and the serial misrepresentations surrounding it) during a debate, it could be a pivotal moment in the campaign. 4. The contrast between the respective candidates’ performances at the Saddleback Forum was startling. Not only did McCain beat Obama handily on substance, but the latter lost on style — his alleged strong point – as well. Obama may be able to raise his style points during this fall’s debates, he may even be able to get up to speed on the issues – but Saturday night unequivocally showed Obama’s supporters that one irremediable difference is, in fact, a serious problem: the chasm between his experience and McCain’s. Obama’s going to need his presumed enormous advantage in funds as well as the continued assistance of the media. Despite spending more money to this point than any candidate in history, Obama can’t separate from McCain.