Sarah Palin will be the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 or 2016.

From the start, I’ve been cautiously optimistic about Palin — I’m hopeful that she’ll be able to prove herself worthy of the role she’s been handed. Last night, of course, suggested that she’s indeed ready for prime time. We’ve still got two months to go, and she has yet to get popped with a foreign policy question that asks her to name Tanzania’s deputy assistant prime minister. Gerald Ford arguably lost his re-election in 1976 because he mistakenly said that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. Palin could get mixed up over something like whether al Qaeda is Sunni or Shia. (The Democratic chairman of the House committee on intelligence doesn’t know.) A little hiccup can cost a lot. It’s entirely possible that most Americans will conclude that they like Palin but don’t see her as commander in chief.

But if conservatives remain enthused about her two months from now, no matter what the result on November 4, she’ll be the heir apparent in a party that likes to pick the person who is perceived as being next in line. Right now, she’s in that position and it’s hers to lose.