This is off the cuff, so it should be taken with ample grains of salt.

The Tony Snow appointment, fair and unfairly, will be remembered as the begining of a Bush turn around in the polls. The press will like Tony, particularly at first. The base will like all the stories about a person critical of Bush from the Right is in there. And his reported plan to have the President and the Press Secretary make news rather than react to it, will put Bush in a more favorable light. In other news, the Iraqi new government is a good sign. Oil prices seem to be trending down a bit. The staff shake-up at the White House will put some new energy in there. The return of Judiciary hearings on judges will remind lots of people why they vote Republican.

Also, Bush really couldn’t go much lower in the polls. The pendulum nature of politics suggests that its easier for him to win back former supporters than for him to lose anymore of his loyalist, hardcore base.

If Bush goes higher in the polls, expect Democrats to panic and hit Bush much harder. If that happens the attacks may work and push him back down or halt his rise. Or, they may make Democrats look worse. Who knows?