Here is how one GOP insider sees the state of play (in other words, not necessarily my take on things). Rudy Guiliani wasn’t fundamentally hurt by the Kerik flap. Its ultimately Kerik’s problem, not Giuliani’s. The former mayor is loved by GOP crowds and has great all-around political skills. He has something of George W. Bush’s ability to connect with individuals in a crowded room. He was a wonderful surrogate for Bush last year. But his problem on gays, guns, and abortion is probably insurmountable. It is likely he can’t fix it short of totally revising his positions, and that will be difficult given his tough-guy, straight-shooter image. Bill Frist is in perhaps the strongest position. He will soak up publicity as Senate Majority Leader, leading on issues like judges. He headed the senatorial committee when the GOP took back the Senate. He is close to the White House, has a good relationship with Dick Cheney, and is loyal to Bush. He is pro life and knows how to talk to socially conservative audiences. He will be able to raise a ton of money. Jeb Bush won’t run. He is arguably the most talented GOP officeholder in the country. He would probably be the strongest GOP candidate. But he considers the dynastic issue too serious to overcome. Because of his family and faith, he doesn’t lust after the job like most politicians. And he is 52 in February, so is young enough to wait, eight years if neccessary (he probably wouldn’t take the VP slot if offered). The theory is that he has to skip at least one cycle the way W did to have some distance from his dad and the way Hillary did to have some distance from Bill. George Allen is a politician to watch. He wears cowboy boots, he is tall and handsome, he doesn’t take himself too seriously, he’s a solid conservative, and he’s putting together a tip-notch team. It will be hard for any senator to get traction, however, when the Senate Majority Leader is running. Mitt Romney is going to have a hard time connecting with the social sonservative base of the party given his Mormon faith–just a fact of life. For what it’s worth…