I wonder how many pro-life Dems are being threatened behind the scenes with primary challenges. There’s been noise — and an Organizing for America e-mail or two — about Stupak getting one. But Stupak needn’t worry. Or so says Isaac Wood from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, with whom I discussed the situation.

“I don’t think Stupak should worry too much about a primary challenge. Democrats right now understand their precarious position, and I think most primary voters will value electability over ideological purity, regardless of some of the more fiery pronouncements from MoveOn.org and others. With Republicans eking ever closer to the House majority in our projections, Democrats simply cannot afford to nominate avowed liberals in battleground districts.”

He continued: “The truth is that most pro-life Democrats, as well as those who are on the fence on health care for other reasons, hail from either closely divided districts or distinctly conservative districts. It isn’t the congressmen from California and New York who might vote against health care, it’s the ones from the South and the West, where a primary challenge from the left would doom the party’s chances in November. In those districts even many Democrats look favorably on a pro-life or anti-deficit stance.”

“Still, Stupak is a symbol and less pragmatic liberals nationwide would no doubt love to send a message with a flood of donations and support to send him packing in the primary,” he guesses. “Within his district though, the vindictive sentiment is much less severe.”