Here’s the way the race stands at TradeSports.com: Bush wins the red states from 2000, minus New Hampshire and plus Iowa and Wisconsin. That’s an electoral-vote win, obviously. Bush also wins the popular vote. In the Senate, Martinez (Fla.) and Vitter (La.) win but Coors (Colo.), Murkowski (Alaska), and Thune (S.D.) lose. The Burr-Bowles (N.C.) and Coburn-Carson (Okla.) races are toss-ups. If Burr and Coburn both lose, the partisan balance in the Senate is unchanged. If they both win, Republicans are up two. It might not all happen that way, of course, but that’s the way people are betting.