Just talked to my shrewd friend I occasionally cite in here. His take: The nomination is still eminently winnable for McCain, but Michigan was a blow. He has had a failed strategy of over-relying on independents and Democrats, and on his national security message. He must begin to reassure conservatives and widen his message. He should be talking about entitlement reform, his pro-life record, his advocacy of smaller government, and make the case that he’s the best candidate to defeat a Democrat in the general election, and once in office, nominate conservative judges. He needs to do that in about three days in South Carolina. The Coburn endorsement is a good start. In terms of the horserace, much depends on South Carolina–McCain has to win there, Huckabee has to win there, and Fred has to win there, although McCain could survive a close second in a bunched-up field at the top. Romney also needs a strong finish, a second or a strong third to show that Michigan wasn’t a fluke. (A win in Nevada for Romney probably won’t get much attention.) A lot is at stake, and a lot is up in the air because there’s no way to know what effect if any Michigan is having on South Carolina. The prize in South Carolina is momentum into Florida and the prize in Florida is momentum nationally going into Feb. 5. All of January has essentially been a fight for the kind of national standing candidates need to do well when there are too many contests on one day to do retail campaigning or advertising in all of them. We’ll know more on Saturday night…

UPDATE

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Rich,
Your shrewd friend may prove right about McCain, but I doubt it. I don’t believe McCain can ever get more than 30% +/- in a Republican only primary. And there is no way he can win in November. The Republican base can’t stand him and Republican leaning Independents can’t swing the election. And did we even talk about his age, which will certainly become an issue in November? There is a reason he has imploded twice before (2000 and summer 2007). The third strike is coming and then he will be out.