John Hood, you are succumbing to an odd fallacy here. Romney and Thompson are both strong candidates, in their ways, and Rudy Giuliani’s nomination would be more than a bit unconventional. But it’s worth noting that this Rasmussen poll putting Thompson in the lead is the first poll in which Giuliani has not led for seven months.

And in the two years previous, Giuliani tied in nearly every poll with McCain. Which means Giuliani has been the Republican frontrunner since the beginning of 2005. This was hard for a lot of people to accept — Rich Lowry and I had a running debate on the status of the frontrunner in the fall and winter, because it seemed impossible that a pro-choice guy like Rudy could possibly hold that position. But he did, and even now, he does (other polls this week beside Rasmussen have Rudy leading by as much as 12 points).

Thompson is now leading him in one poll having done absolutely nothing as yet. Romney is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire to some degree because he’s the only person putting resources in there. Thompson will probably have a very good summer, but at some point he’s going to have to say something substantive, and that may take him down a few notches. (For you Romneyites who think I’m talking down his strength in these two states, please note I’m not the only person saying this. Michael Barone, who knows everything about politics, said it this week too.)

Remember this–if Giuliani wins Florida and New Jersey and New York and California by February 5, he will have at least twice as many delegates in his pocket as anybody else. What this means is simple: He’s going to have to melt down on his own by January — the way McCain seems to have melted down — if he isn’t at least to be a factor in the nominating process.

He may. On the other hand Giuliani seemed to be melting down a few months ago and then, with two dazzling debate performances in succession, he stopped the meltdown.

Thompson may indeed injure Giuliani profoundly if he continues to come across as “electable” in November 2008, since that is Giuliani’s particular strength with Republican voters worried about a Hillary cakewalk. I think he’s a very interesting candidate and his entry in the race makes it exciting and unpredictable, which is all to the good for the Republican field — the GOP’s best hope is to capture the attention not only of its own voters but of independent voters as well with an interesting and not-easily-pigeonholed nominee.