Rich, I said at the Goldberg-Long-Steyn post-game show last night that McCain didn’t have a great evening. My very strong impression of him in 2000 (where I saw him at many more town meetings than I have this time round) is that late in the day he finds it harder to contain the nastiness. There’s a fine line between cranky and petty, and he is, by common consent, thin-skinned, and there comes a point where the media image of him slips and the McCain that his fellow senators know too well comes into public view. Last time round, he held it in check (mostly) until South Carolina. Seems to be emerging earlier this year.

Also, on the math of the Granite State, in 2000 Bill Bradley was a bust, and so independents stampeded over to the GOP primary to vote for McCain. This time round most of them will be voting for Obama. So McCain needs a far higher proportion of Republican votes on Tuesday. I think he’ll get them, but in hard numbers it won’t be a 2000-style blowout.