Mark Mellman’s piece in the Hill is one of the most extraordinary

political documents I’ve ever read. All you need do is stitch together

the quotes that suggest Kerry is heading to his doom:

“Win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge

Sen. John Kerry faces.”

” First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

“Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s

economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad.

The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was

defeated….The level of economic pain we are now

feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of

office.”

“On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38

percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.”

” We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the

country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold

that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the

country was seriously off on the wrong track.

“It has been an uphill fight.”

Mellman wrote this on Sunday. It is all but impossible to believe that

Kerry’s own pollster didn’t see numbers that depressed him deeply and

caused him to draft an unprecedentedly negative report on his

candidate’s own prospects to be published on the morning of the

election. Whatever qualifiers he has added on to suggest that he still

expects Kerry to win are just that — qualifiers, and utterly

unconvincing ones.

Take from this what you will, but there’s no question that inside the

Kerry camp at least some people think their man has already lost.