Ramesh, there are two issues here. First, can the Republican Party make the uphill climb necessary to avoid defeat in 2008? And second, what role should a candidate’s views on abortion play as far as that uphill climb goes?

It’s unquestionably the case that if Rudy Giuliani adopts a stance on abortion rights no different from that held by liberal Democrats, he cannot, will not and should not be the Republican nominee for president.

But anybody who watches that CNN interview, mind-bogglingly sloppy though it is, with a dispassionate eye has to notice Rudy introducing his discussion of the topic with the words: “I mean, I have to reexamine all those issues and exactly what was at stake then. It is a long time ago.” Unfortunately, he then followed it up with a kind of self-indulgent dorm-room musing session about how, if abortion is a constitutional right, then you have to make sure “people are protected.”

This was stupid. Even worse, it was stupid in exactly the same way his remarks about his one-time nurse’s wife’s expertise in health care were during the Barbara Walters interview last week. They were undisciplined and self-indulgent. They reveal not that Rudy is a committed social liberal but that he really doesn’t care all that much about abortion one way or the other.

Now, here’s the truth of it. None of the serious candidates for the office – with the exception of Sam Brownback — really does care about abortion one way or the other. I don’t believe Romney does, despite his change of heart. I don’t believe McCain does, despite his voting record. I don’t think Fred Thompson does either, because his political and ideological origins derive not from social conservatism but from Howard Baker-style moderation.

So. Can the Republican party bring itself to nominate a candidate who doesn’t really care much about abortion one way or the other? It appears that will happen. Now the question is, will Republican opinion leaders spend the year 2007 making abortion a major battleground in the nominating process? With the mainstream media following along lapping it up and stressing the most extreme elements of the discussion to send the message to independent voters that right-wingers are all a bunch of lunatics who are obsessed with ideological purity and not with getting things done?

I think if they do, the GOP is sunk.