I welcome this polling, reported by Shannen, as a consciousness raising device. It suggests, as Ramesh has maintained, that there may be a real (and perhaps even quantifiable) correlation between Democratic losses and filibusters. I don’t think it demonstrates that the filibusters have not been a big net gain for Democrats, as I believe they have been, after these losses are offset by what Democrats have achieved by the filibusters thus far, and what they stand to achieve if they hold firm.

I remain skeptical about this kind of polling data. It is patently of the leading question variety and is not necessarily indicative of what actually galvanizes voters, as would be questions that did not supply (and, in fact, suggest) particular answers. I would be impressed, for example, about what 78 percent of voters thought the Constitution required if I really believed 78 percent of voters had either followed the judicial confirmation issue or had any idea of why it implicated the Constitution in some way.

But I sincerely do not mean to be dismissive. Undeniably, this kind of data indicates that there is a ready and perhaps excitable constituency out there if the case is aggressively taken to them, which the President is certainly capable of doing if he makes the judges a priority on the scale of, say, counterterrorism or social security reform.

Maybe this means Ramesh is right that the political conditions exist (or at least that the ground is fertile for bringing those conditions into being) to defeat the filibusters without having to change the senate rules — i.e., to convince Democrats to abandon them as a political liability in the ordinary course. For the reasons I’ve argued, I am deeply doubtful about that. But as I’ve said, I’d rather Ramesh turned out to be right, and I wrong, since (a) such a scenario would obviously be preferable to the fall-out from the rules change I believe will be necessary if we are to get the President’s nominees appointed, and (b) I have my doubts that, when it gets down to brass tacks, the 51 votes will be there for the rules change.