Mark (K) – I agree entirely. Or at least I have a nearly spotless record of deferring to Nick Eberstadt on such things (as a former demography Hobbit at AEI, he’s like a level 20 Ranger in my dungeon master book). I think that’s just another good example of why all these straight line projections about China are so foolish. The easiest prediction to make is that the predictable won’t happen.