Jonah: It may be an unpersuasive argument, but it’s still a damn good

question. Giving SH all this time to hide things, organize things (e.g.

attacks on US territory by client terrorist groups) and develop things,

cannot possibly be cost-free. GWB should have made up his mind once for all

at the time of the “axis of evil” speech whether or not he was willing to go

without UN sanction. If he was, he should have done it ASAP–which, from

what I know of logistics, would have been within a matter of weeks. I do

take your point, though, that circumstances–e.g. a surprise attack on US

forces–would alter everything, though I think SH is much to smart to commit

any such blunder. My hopes for war rest on the following, in descending

order of probability: (1) GWB will realize that to stand down the assembled

forces without any attack, and without spontaneous regime change in Iraq,

will be an election-loser for him. (2) There has been frantic development

on some terrific and devastating new weapons system–an infallible

bunker-buster, for example–that GWB wants to have fully tested & in place

for the attack. (3) Colin Powell will decide he needs to spend more time

with his family.