Fair enough, Rich, to note that Zogby—he of yesterday’s “late-breaking surge” for Thompson—now has Thompson dropping a point. But in my post below I wasn’t attempting to suggest the Thompson is riding some sort of powerful wave, only that the situation remains remarkably fluid.

The notion of a “surge” is important here, of course, because it bears directly on what might be happening at this very hour. Because Zogby (like every pollster) uses weighted averages, each day’s number reflects polling over a period of several days, and any single number can tend to understate or (overstate) a trend. When Zogby posted a 12 for Thompson yesterday—and here I use Thompson’s numbers simply by way of example–he was saying that Thompson’s average over several days stood at 12. But since Zogby’s earlier numbers for Thompson had been lower, a 12 yesterday suggested that Thompson’s actual number on that day alone—that is, yesterday’s raw, unweighted number–was something considerably higher than 12, perhaps a number in the high teens. (Whatever the number, it sure got Zogby’s attention.)

On the day of an election—or, rather, in this case, of a caucus—weighted averages simply cease to matter. What matters instead, obviously, are the unweighted numbers, the numbers on that day. And as much as the pollsters’ published numbers have bounced around in the fast few weeks, the raw data—the unweighted numbers—must have bounced around even more.

What’s happening in Iowa right now? As the existence over the past few days of all those little surges suggests—including McCain’s limited comeback and Paul’s gains, albeit from a very low base—almost any darned thing could be happening.

Which is my point. In a situation that remains as fluid as this one, a visibly energized and hard-swinging candidate, which is what Thompson has at last become, might—just might—create a surge for himself on the one day when it counts.