Just in time for my piece on House races in this week’s print National Review, Rep. Rick Renzi (R., Ariz.) has told Roll Call (subscription required) that he will not be running for reelection next year. Renzi has been caught up in what looks like a faux-scandal. But even if he beats the rap in the end, he’s had to spend considerable resources to defend himself already, and his reputation has been ruined in the northeast Arizona district. With a campaign that is deeply in debt, he had few choices but to retire.

This seat, Arizona-1, will be very hard for Republicans to defend. It has a Democratic registration advantage of about 30,000 right now, I’m told. It was drawn for the 2002 election by Arizona’s non-partisan gerrymandering commission to be a “fair-fight” district. A prime Democratic target if there ever was one.

Things look mighty grim for the House GOP right now. A Republican source tells me that if the election were held today, they would probably lose more than ten seats. I cannot disagree with that assessment.