Jay Cost:

The top three issues [in a Survey USA poll of Florida Republicans], in order, are the economy, terrorism, and immigration. Giuliani has the edge on terrorism. No big surprise there. Romney has the edge on immigration. Again, no surprise. But McCain has an edge on the economy. And remember that McCain won voters whose top concern was the economy in New Hampshire and tied them with Mike Huckabee in South Carolina. Romney won them in Michigan, and the recent LA Times/Bloomberg national poll showed Romney with a statistically significant, six point lead over McCain as to who is best equipped to deal with the economy. Interestingly, preferences on this question break along self-identified ideology – moderates/liberals and independents split between Romney and McCain, conservatives go for Romney; furthermore, the poll found that moderates/liberals and independents were more concerned about the economy than conservatives. All in all, I think the data tells a mixed tale about the political effects of the economy. I think it is fair to say that Romney’s background gives him real potential with voters concerned about the economy – but he has not yet broken out with them in the early states beyond Michigan.