In his National Journal column, Jonathan Rauch opines on why John McCain is the tonic for the GOP, the Man for the Moment, a candidate “tailor made to repair the damage” to the GOP. In the course of his column, Rauch writes this:
Bush-era Republicanism was all about suppressing the center and mobilizing the extremes, on the (correct) assumption that conservatives outnumber liberals. It worked, for a while, because of 9/11 and because the Democrats unwittingly cooperated. Forced to choose between the Republican Right and the Democratic Left, independents leaned Republican or just stayed home.
This is an example of a columnist who makes an assertion when he is ignorant of the facts. Unlike Rauch in his column, let’s look at some.
President Bush increased his vote total from 2000 to 2004 by almost a quarter (23 percent). Anyone who studies politics knows that you don’t achieve a figure like that by running a “base election” and one that is “all about suppressing the center.” President Bush not only mobilized his base, he increased his popularity among Hispanics, African Americans, Catholics, and Jews, to list just a few of the non-traditional Republican groups whom Bush appealed to in his reelection campaign. Bush also became the first president since 1988 to win more than 50 percent of the popular vote and received the most votes by any presidential candidate in history. He became the first President since 1936 to be reelected while gaining seats in the House and Senate. And nationwide turnout as a percent of voting-age population in 2004 was the highest of any presidential election since 1972.
There is more. But suffice it to say that to argue this was achieved by “suppressing the center” is sloppy and not credible. Between 2000 and 2004 President Bush not only mobilized his base, he demonstrated remarkable appeal to groups who do not usually vote Republican.
The 2006 midterm election was a blow — just as are most midterm elections for incumbent presidents (Republicans lost eight Senate seats in Reagan’s 1986 mid-term election). I would add that among the chief reasons the GOP lost in the 2006 congressional elections was it was viewed as not being conservative enough on spending issues (thereby undermining the Rauch thesis, which is that Republicans “swung too far to the right”).
The fact that Jon Rauch has good things to say about John McCain is certainly fine by me; McCain is in many ways an impressive figure. But a columnist as intelligent as Mr. Rauch should be able to make his points without relying on easily disprovable urban legends.






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