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There’s no evidence that Kayla Mueller, an American aid worker held hostage by the Islamic State, was killed in Jordanian air strikes, but “it would be hard for [the terror group] to backtrack” from its claim that that’s what happened, National Review Online’s Tom Rogan said.

Appearing on Fox News on Friday, Rogan said it is “likely” that Mueller was already dead. Her death has not yet been confirmed by the Obama administration, and the Islamic State has not released any photographs to substantiate its claims. The group likely hopes claims of Mueller’s death will both deter further Western actions and serve as a propaganda and recruitment tool, Rogan said.