Another thought. If Romney does win, then I believe that this race will have become a delegate hunt. Suddenly, it’s going to matter where Romney wins and where McCain wins. The campaign polling I know of has Romney doing extremely well in Detroit, and McCain doing well in the West, which should be Huckabee territory. But most of the delegates are, by rule, awarded by Congressional District.

Michigan’s state GOP Chairman, Saul Anuzis, has told me confidently in the past that the penalty depriving Michigan of half its delegates will eventually be rescinded at the convention, by request of the winner. But if there is no clear winner before the convention, they will not be restored. So how are we supposed to count the delegates? For now, the only honest way is to count them with the penalty until there is a clear winner.

There will be 30 delegates, with the penalty. But how are they awarded? Green Papers “guesses” (and I’ve inquired, but no one is planning for the eventuality of a brokered convention) that there will be one delegate awarded per district (instead of three), and then 15 delegates awarded according to the proportion of the vote for candidates getting 15 percent or more (as before).

But that’s sort of misleading, too, because the state party plans to name 60 delegates. The count itself gets messed up today. The campaigns may even begin using different delegate counts to spin the result.