The announcement by progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego that he is seeking the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 2024 could be very good news for Republicans in the race for the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema, if they don’t screw up and nominate an unelectable weirdo. Blake Masters, Kari Lake, and Karrin Taylor Robson are all reported to be mulling runs; if Masters and Lake both run, it could split the MAGA fringe vote and create more room for a normal candidate such as Robson or, if he could be persuaded to run, Doug Ducey. A pro-Gallego poll in December showed that Gallego would draw the bulk of the Democratic base in a three-way general election race, at least if Lake was the opponent. This may be an over-pessimistic assessment of Sinema’s appeal, but there is a real risk for Democrats that they could divide the left-of-center vote in a state where the general electorate may be anti-MAGA, but is still a majority right-of-center electorate. The problem for Democrats is that Sinema won’t be in their primary, so it is likely to end with both her and Gallego in the race and no obvious path to get either of them to drop out. The problem for Sinema is that the prospect of a three-way race gives Republicans little incentive to welcome her as a party-switcher if she decides to seek the GOP port in a storm, especially because a defection would not — as of now — flip control of the Senate before 2025.
It would take a big screwup to blow this opportunity, but Arizona Republicans may be up to the job.