Poll Shows Risk to Democrats from Sinema’s Defection

Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from the Democratic Party is embarrassing to the Democrats, but unless she is alienated further from her former party, it will be of little practical significance to control of the Senate or the balance of power on legislation, budgets, or judicial or other confirmations over the next two years. But 2024 is another matter entirely. Sinema’s term is up in 2024. Assuming she seeks reelection, she will have the power of incumbency. We do not yet know the political environment of 2024: Will Joe Biden still be president, and running again? Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee, or under indictment, or both? Will the economy be in better or worse shape than it is now? Will China invade Taiwan?

This much is already clear: Assuming that Sinema does not seek the Democrats’ nomination for the Senate, they will have to decide whether to support her anyway (as they do with, say, Angus King in Maine) or whether to run their own candidate. If they do, that could split the Democratic vote, and help Republicans. But further complications ensue: If a Democrat runs too far left and the Republicans nominate one of the Arizona GOP’s deep bench of nut cases, will there still be a path for Sinema to run down the middle and win?

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from the Democratic Party is embarrassing to the Democrats, but unless she is alienated further from her former party, it will be of little practical significance to control of the Senate or the balance of power on legislation, budgets, or judicial or other confirmations over the next two years. But 2024 is another matter entirely. Sinema’s term is up in 2024. Assuming she seeks reelection, she will have the power of incumbency. We do not yet know the political environment of 2024: Will Joe Biden still be president, and running again? Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee, or under indictment, or both? Will the economy be in better or worse shape than it is now? Will China invade Taiwan?

This much is already clear: Assuming that Sinema does not seek the Democrats’ nomination for the Senate, they will have to decide whether to support her anyway (as they do with, say, Angus King in Maine) or whether to run their own candidate. If they do, that could split the Democratic vote, and help Republicans. But further complications ensue: If a Democrat runs too far left and the Republicans nominate one of the Arizona GOP’s deep bench of nut cases, will there still be a path for Sinema to run down the middle and win?