Doug Schoen here on Rudy losing early states (see the ‘08 round-up below):

No biggie, Giuliani’s people argue – they are sitting in the catbird’s seat when Feb. 5 rolls around. That’s the day a half dozen big states go to the polls. But while Giuliani holds leads now in major, moderate states such as New York, Florida, California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois, politics is like pool: The first shot changes the next one. If Giuliani loses to Romney in the first three states and to Thompson in South Carolina, a strong Super Tuesday showing is a fantasy. Mark my words: Giuliani will not be the GOP’s nominee. Instead, he will join a long list including Howard Dean, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and others who owned national polls early – only to fizzle once the real votes were counted.