Hotline reports that Rep. Mike Arcuri (D., N.Y.), a sophomore who had a tough go of it in 2008, will vote nay on Obamacare, both on the House floor and in the Rules Committee. The Rules vote is symbolic, since Democrats outnumber Republicans there two-to-one. But the floor vote could go either way. It is obviously a blow to Pelosi’s chances of hitting 216. But just as often, the fact that a vulnerable junior member votes against the Speaker signals that the Speaker can afford to let him do so.