The Corner

Russia: Cutting the Cable?

Estonian Navy conducts an undersea communications cable survey after a subsea gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia under the Baltic Sea was damaged, in the Gulf of Finland, October 10, 2023. (Estonian Navy Handout/Handout via Reuters)

Pipelines and communications cables near the Baltic states were mysteriously damaged recently.

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I wrote the other day about the so far unexplained damage to (1) Baltikonnector, the gas pipeline running under the Baltic between Finland and Estonia and (2) a breach in a telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia. It now appears that there was also damage to another Baltic telecoms cable at about the same time. It runs between Sweden and Estonia. In the last case, the damage was less severe, and the cable is still functional. Unsurprisingly, the Estonian authorities suspect that this incident may be linked to the earlier two. The pipeline will take months to repair.

Reuters:

The investigation into the damage to the Balticonnector gas pipeline and a nearby cable is currently focused on the role of the Chinese NewNew Polar Bear container vessel, Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) has said.

On Monday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson called for an “objective, fair and professional” investigation into the damage, saying a Chinese vessel in the area at the time was sailing normally.

Estonian investigators probing the telecoms cable incidents, said they were still looking at two ships, the NewNew Polar Bear and Russia’s Sevmorput.

Russia has repeatedly denied any involvement in the damage.

Well, Russia would, wouldn’t it?

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Kathryn Porter:

These attacks and the increase in suspicious drone activity around North Sea oil and gas installations are a significant cause for concern. Norway is a major supplier of gas to both the UK and the EU, supplying over 40 percent of the gas consumed in the UK and 25 percent of the total gas consumed in the EU. Norwegian gas to the UK comes through just two dedicated pipelines: the Langeled pipe from the giant Ormen Lange gas field off the coast of Nyhamna in Norway to Easington in Yorkshire and Vesterled, which runs from the Heimdal field in the North Sea to St Fergus gas plant near Peterhead in Scotland.

Norwegian gas also comes through four of the UK’s own North Sea pipelines which carry gas from the UK’s own producing fields. This means that anything between 85 and 95 percent of the gas consumed in the UK each year has arrived through just half a dozen pipelines. A similar number of pipes carry Norwegian gas to the EU and there are two pipes between the UK and EU which add additional flexibility.

Given this reliance on a small number of key assets, it’s no wonder that concerns are growing over physical security.

And with winter coming up. . . .

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